Category Archives: evaluating evidence

01-Structuring a problem, 05-Creating & constructing good solutions, 99-Applying business intelligence, creativity methods, evaluating evidence, feedback, scoping

Performance evaluation

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As part of this semester’s MP course I wanted to solicit feedback on my performance from constituents beyond my direct supervisor. I looked through the web for different options, and I found that I favor MIT’s performance evaluation templates the most. They have two formats that I think can be used to capture a lot of information about feedback on our professional performances.

One of them is focused on a quantitative evaluation of your performance along several parameters; the other is more narrative style and asks for stories regarding your development in your role and your organization.

As a quick summary, here are the parameters around which the quant one measures performance:

1. Proficiency/skill in carrying out assignments (ability/competency)

2. Planning/organizing/prioritizing work load (analysis/time management)

3. Holds self accountable for assigned responsibilities (accountability/reliability)

4. Proficiency at improving work methods/procedures (continual improvement)

5. Effective communicator

6. Ability to work independently/ or with a team

7.  Willingness to take on additional responsibilities

8. Adeptness in analyzing facts, problem solving, decision-making, and demonstrating good judgement (sensible thinker)

All managers are different, and some people may have managers that have unclear expectations, or do not communicate their expectations. This points to the importance of being able to manage oneself. I think that pointers such as these can lead the individual to continually reflect and evaluate their own performance. Of course, we may not be as objective as an outside source (but heck, they are likely not to be objective either!), but at least we can bring a greater awareness to monitoring our performance. By bringing a higher level of awareness, we should be able to hone in on issues, and do a little trouble-shooting ourselves.

 

01-Structuring a problem, 04-Managing a project team, 05-Creating & constructing good solutions, 06-Building a case, creativity methods, evaluating evidence, problem statement, scoping, team dynamics

How Effective Leaders Solve Problems

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Effective leaders tend to find a strong balance between data analysis and intuition. Many times, the aspect of intuition comes from recognizing patterns or trends. A big part of problem solving is recognizing these trends and finding ways to minimize its reoccurrence. Additionally, it is important for leaders to understand the true essence of the problem rather than finding a temporary fix that will likely rise again in the near future. This gives leaders more time to focus on other areas of the business rather than continuing to fix the same problem over and over again.

Understanding the intricacies of every aspect of the business is one way to develop a strong sense of how your decisions can affect specific areas of the business. Effective leaders don’t look at problems as a nuisance; effective leaders see problems as an opportunity for ongoing improvements.

Forbes has come up with four characteristics that make an effective leader:

1) Transparent Communication: The main takeaway is that transparent communication allows for other people to be heard. It fosters an environment where people are willing to speak up if there is an issue.

2) Break Down Silos: The importance of this characteristic is to eliminate boundaries. It is important to solve problems that affect the overall business rather than one segment of the business.

3) Open-Minded People: Effective leaders are ones who are not discouraged to find innovative ways to solve a problem. They are individuals that do not avoid the problem; they are not afraid to face problems head-on.

4) A Solid Foundational Strategy: As we have learned in our Strategy course, a business without a strategy is dangerous. Effective leaders go beyond figuring out the problem; they find ways to implement a strategy to solve the problem. This includes resource allocation and budgeting.

Some final takeaways are:

  • Always step back and assess the situation; never take a blind guess when solving a problem.
  • Find ways to solve the cause of the problem to eliminate it from reoccurring.
  • Learn from your previous failures and use those lessons learned to solve future problems.
  • Don’t avoid problem solving; challenge yourself to solve the problem head-on.

To read more about becoming an effective leader, feel free to visit the article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2013/11/04/the-4-most-effective-ways-leaders-solve-problems/.

01-Structuring a problem, 06-Building a case, evaluating evidence, issue trees, problem statement, scoping

A Recap on the Strategic Problem-Solving Model

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Oftentimes, we can be inundated with information from work, school, and other obligations. We have covered a lot of this information in our MP course, but it is good information to look at and keep in mind when faced with trying to solve a problem in your business. McKinsey has developed a strategic problem-solving model that is specifically set in place to help MBA students build knowledge and skillsets in strategy.

Here is McKinsey’s strategic problem-solving model:

We must first start with defining the problem and determining what information is required to expand your research on that problem. This is where you “frame the problem” and then develop a hypothesis based on that problem. At this step, we develop an issue tree to break down our ideas into smaller components.

Once you develop an issue tree, you need to sort out the information into what you know and what you don’t know. Then you seek out more information on those topics that you don’t know by using fact-finding and interviewing techniques to gather information.

Here are a few tips to keep in mind when following this problem-solving model:

  • Be sure to follow facts, not intuition
  • Figure out the underlying issue before diving into the project
  • Don’t reinvent the wheel; follow the frameworks given to you
  • Look to other resources to help guide you with your research
  • Garbage in = garbage out
  • First, look at the annual report, then outliers in data as well as best practices in the industry

For more information on this strategic problem-solving model, be sure to visit http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/~mbolin/donaldson.html.

05-Creating & constructing good solutions, 99-Applying business intelligence, business databases, evaluating evidence, library research

Iron Maiden and Data Analysis: How one Heavy-metal band used data to profit from a revenue-stealing platform

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Applying data analysis definitely isn’t always the most exciting field- certainly not as fun as seeing a heavy metal band say Iron Maiden live for instance. With the constant shrinking revenues from traditional album recordings many bands are increasingly reliant on live shows- especially older bands who’s catalog of albums can be easily downloaded in a matter of minutes at no profit to the band or label. This leads them down a road of never ending farewell tours in the same reliable but boring locations.

Enter Iron Maiden: The international super group undoubtedly has fans all over the world but has struggled with their selection of where to tour, despite being one of the most iconic acts in industry. In an innovative use of data analytics for the music industry the band now weighs illegal downloads by location to help determine demand. This has paid off huge in their recent South American tours whereas prior data say that it would have been a disaster and complete opportunity loss. Their most recent tour gained them the distinction of “One of six groups that outperformed the industry” including live documentary sales and one concert alone in Sao Palo that grossed them over $2.5 million. South American attendance and revenue also trumped their previous averages in NA and the EU too.

Hail the Iron Maiden data wonks!

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/iron-maiden-using-bittorrent-analytics-to-plot-tours-20131226

06-Building a case, 07c-Telling stories, evaluating evidence

Intuition + Data = Good Decisions and Compelling Storytelling

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One of my reasons for attending business school is to improve my decision making skills. I typically apply the mantra “follow your gut,” when making decisions, but have quickly found that this doesn’t fly in the business world.  Colleagues want evidence based recommendations, which in my mind means I have to work with numbers (not my favorite).  Fortunately, incorporating both data and intuition can result in good decisions and compelling storytelling.

In this article by Andrew McAfee, we learn from specific examples that human judgment alone does not trump algorithms. So is the sum of our experiences and beliefs worthless? No! It’s all about using judgment or opinions as inputs to data models. Unfortunately, many people get this process turned around and disregard data that doesn’t align with their opinions.

From there, you can use data to tell compelling stories and build persuasive business cases. In this HBR blog, Walter Frick interviews Jim Takersly on how data and stories enhance each other. At one point, data is referred to as “medicine” and the story as something that helps you consume that medicine. I’d have to agree with that metaphor, but I also understand how data can give a story shock value or credibility. There are many different kinds of stories to tell with data. Here are ten.

01-Structuring a problem, 05-Creating & constructing good solutions, 06-Building a case, evaluating evidence, issue trees, problem statement, scoping, stakeholder analysis

The Top-Down Approach to Critical Thinking

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In this article, which I found on Business Insider, the author discusses how to be a more effective critical thinker and problem solver. He speaks about how after obtaining a position as a strategy consultant after his MBA, he struggled to solve problems quickly and effectively for clients. A mentor then coached him to “START WITH THE ANSWERS.” This advice that was very foreign to the author at the time. He struggled with this concept but his mentor taught him how to start with the basic structure of a problem they were trying to solve and then develop some hypotheses around that problem based on any given knowledge or prior experience. Then they would put the hypotheses down into a structured diagram with answers that tie to the logic of the problem they were trying to solve. The mentor noted that once they knew the structure of the problem and the possible solutions, they could plan the data that proves or disproves their theories.

This immediately made me think of Issue Trees; a concept I struggled with when first presented to us by Professor Noonan in fall semester. I felt that I could not come up with possible solutions before knowing all of the facts or researching all of the relevant information I needed to try to find the solution. But the mentor in this article also makes a good point that the key to this top-down approach to critical thinking is to not be married to the original answer but by having an original hypothesis or hypotheses, one can begin to focus the data that one collects regarding the solution, as well as begin to socialize the “answers” to illicit feedback and reactions, which can help to hone in on a real and viable solution.

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-better-way-to-solve-problems-in-business-2010-7#ixzz37IYQ5WMo

 

01-Structuring a problem, 06-Building a case, 07c-Telling stories, 07d-Delivering a presentation, evaluating evidence, stress-testing recommendations

“Born to Run”

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If you’re like me, you enjoy getting book recommendations, preferably non-fiction about real people, doing real things, in real places.  “Born to Run” by Christopher McDougall is just that and also has several parallels to MP concepts that we can learn from.  It begins with a simple subject of running and it’s impact on injuries and transforms into a fascinating story of McDougall’s search for truth and ultimately lead’s to his conclusion that running long distances barefoot is the key to health, happiness, and longevity.  From utlra-marathons to Mexican cartels, this book has a little bit of everything and is highly entertaining.

The MP concepts are evident throughout the book as McDougall starts with a simple problem, gathers information, build’s a case for his hypothesis, and then delivers it in a fun and entertaining story.  Here’s a link to an overview of the book from McDougall’s website if you’re interested in learning more about it:

 

http://www.chrismcdougall.com/book.html

 

06-Building a case, 99-Applying business intelligence, business databases, evaluating evidence, library research

Data credibility challanges impact all BI research

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The posts concerning data credibility are absolutely spot on – but their relevancy doesn’t stop with challenges around hard data.

Reading through them, the observations that jumped out:

  • repercussions if the information is inaccurate
  • need to analyze and ensure the integrity of the data
  • shifting focus on going to the actual source of the data rather than applying a Band-Aid approach to the bad data
  • Chevron’s use of a process to ensure that the right decisions are made using the right information

All of these can be applied to the entire business intelligence process, including the identification, access and analysis of secondary information, including data.  Think about data you locate in industry trade publications, in Wall Street analyst reports, even in sources of market research, such as Marketline/Datamonitor, Euromonitor, or EIU.  You can’t just take the data for granted, assume that it is correct.  You need to question, probe and understand many facets, including the originating source of the data, methodologies around the data gathering process, the accuracy, integrity and bias of the source of the data (both original and published) which includes understanding something about the intended audience and purpose/motivation for the data creation/use as well.

And like Chevron, you must have a process (remember the  discussions around the necessity for “Planning the Work” and “Working the Plan” in your fall’13 MP class and the spring’14 BI workshop).  Having these in place provides you and your team with a framework that, if applied correctly, helps ensure that you avoid using bad data, using unsubstantiated insights for your analysis and recommendations.

Last Fall in MP, Professor Noonan introduced you to a few BI frameworks, and we briefly mentioned a few more in the BI workshop.  I am attaching more detailed discussions around 4 of these frameworks (what we are calling Business Intelligence Briefs) which speak so directly to your data credibility threads.

Business Intelligence BRIEFS-4_Information Gathering Plan Business Intelligence BRIEFS-3_Four Avenues for Gathering Intelligence Business Intelligence BRIEFS-5_Owners of Information and Motivations Business Intelligence BRIEFS-2_Five Dimensions of BI

 

06-Building a case, evaluating evidence

Building Your Case Starts with Asking the Right Questions

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The concept of building your case begins well before you gather all of your information. It is easy to fall into a trap of fitting your case around the information you gathered, however this can lead to many problems such as developing a solution to the wrong problem, not solving the underlying root cause of the problem, or even providing answers to the client that they already know. There are strategies that you can use to gather the right information prior to building your case, which in the end, will become your case.

When doing research on the topic of building a case, I came across some short but powerful tips that HBR has come up with regarding the topic. Here are a few tips that I find helpful:

  • Don’t’ settle for the first developed business case; explore alternative solutions
  • Get the impacted clients and employees involved
  • Ask questions to clarify what the client is asking of you
  • Ask “what” and “why” questions to expand on the client’s thought

Remember, all of these activities should occur well before you gather your information and develop a solution for your client. Neglecting any of these activities may cause your project to start over from the beginning or even lose the business from your client. For those who are interested in this topic, there are a few more tips that you can use to help build your case: http://hbr.org/tip/2012/05/10/build-a-better-business-case and http://hbr.org/tip/2013/03/01/use-questions-to-build-your-case.