Tag Archives: Decision Analysis

01-Structuring a problem, issue trees, problem statement, scoping

Some More Analysis Frameworks

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In our first semester we learned about issue trees in MP and event trees in DDA and how they help break-down problem statements into solvable nuggets. In addition to these trees, here are three more analytical frameworks to breakdown problems:

  • Means-ends networks: The initial problem statement is broken down by identifying all the obstacles that hinder reaching the goal. Then develop an action to get past this obstacle and in turn identify new obstacles that would thwart this plan. When all of these levels’ impediments are addressed, the overall problem statement should be solved.1
  • Objective hierarchy: Another hierarchical structure where a broad objective is developed out of the problem statement at the highest level. This objective is broken down into narrower objectives. As the objectives get narrower they take the form of actions, therefore they are called ‘means objectives’.2

Consequence tables: This structure is useful in comparing multiple options. List the multiple alternatives on one axis of the table and attributes to compare on the other axis. Give each alternative a rating for each attribute (the rating being relative to that of the other alternatives). Color coding the ratings based on different thresholds visually helps in comparing the alternatives.3

Looking back at our past two MP project I feel as though a means-end network would have been very beneficial (in addition to the issue trees we developed). There were several obstacles in both the Carlos Museum and Delta projects that needed to be sorted out and solved at a basic level.

Sources:

  1. http://www.bcp.psych.ualberta.ca/~mike/Pearl_Street/Dictionary/contents/M/meansends.html
  2. http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/topics/fire_science/craft/craft/Four_stages/Objectives/Objectives_hierarchy_tutorial.htm
  3. http://www.structureddecisionmaking.org/steps/step4consequences/consequences2/
01-Structuring a problem, problem statement, scoping, stakeholder analysis

Working with Decision Makers to Refine your Scope

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Although the MP projects we were given the previous two semesters were real issues, one aspect that was limited (due to the sheer number of students) was a constant engagement between us and the firm we were trying to help, to narrow the scope. Boiling down to the scope was part of the MP learning process, however Detlof von Winterfeld and Barbara Fasolo point out in “Structuring Decision Problems: A Case Studying and Reflections for Practitioners” how much of an iterative process structuring a problem and decision analysis can be. Shown below is the decision analysis ‘snake diagram’ that clearly shows the back and forth that is necessary, especially in the early stages of a project, between the decision board (decision makers) and the decision team (decision analysts – those that are responsible for formulating a solution). After being given the scope of the problem, the decision team has the decision board sign off on their understanding of the problem prior to moving on. This gives the decision analysts an opportunity to refine the scope of the project with the assistance of the decision makers.

Brainstorming is also included in the way of developing alternatives and assessing them. Not surprisingly the Plan for Action and Implementation only take up a third of this process with most of the foundation work being done prior, as was suggested in MP.

Figure 1. Spetzler Snake Diagram for Decision Analysis. von Winterfeldt, Detlof and Fasolo, Barbara, “Structuring Decision Problems: A Case Studying and Reflections for Practitioners” (2009). Published Articles & Papers. Paper 30.